This is from the Rumor Queen on the possibilities on when we will receive our referral.
When
February 12th, 2011I’ve got the histories page updated. Finally.
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 27, 34, 28, 35, 35, 28, 38, 32, 44, 33, 46, and 47 day intervals.
The shortest time frame is 27 days, the longest is 47.
The average over the last year is 36, median is 35. If we throw out the two highest and two lowest then the average is the 35 and the median is 35.
If we look at the last four months then the average is the 44 and the median is 45. Ouch.
The question then, is whether the last four months are the new norm, or whether we can continue to look at the past year.
If we look at the past year then we’d expect to see referrals somewhere around Wednesday, March 9.
If we look at the past four months then the most likely date of arrival would be Friday, March 18.
The window this time stretches from Tuesday, March 1 to Monday, March 21. But I don’t know how realistic it is to look at that March 1st date, as we haven’t seen a twenty-something day interval since June.
If it were me I’d be setting my sites for somewhere around March 9th, but preparing myself for something closer to the week of March 18th. Sure, we could see them before March 9th… but I’d be preparing myself for later than that.
These When post are all about trying to control expectations. Some people do better telling themselves an earlier date, and then when it doesn’t come the more realistic date isn’t so far away at that point. Others do better telling themselves a date that’s a week past the most likely so they don’t find themselves disappointed when the expected date doesn’t happen. Whatever you need to do to get through the wait, I hope my number crunching helps you find the best way to manage your own expectations.
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 27, 34, 28, 35, 35, 28, 38, 32, 44, 33, 46, and 47 day intervals.
The shortest time frame is 27 days, the longest is 47.
The average over the last year is 36, median is 35. If we throw out the two highest and two lowest then the average is the 35 and the median is 35.
If we look at the last four months then the average is the 44 and the median is 45. Ouch.
The question then, is whether the last four months are the new norm, or whether we can continue to look at the past year.
If we look at the past year then we’d expect to see referrals somewhere around Wednesday, March 9.
If we look at the past four months then the most likely date of arrival would be Friday, March 18.
The window this time stretches from Tuesday, March 1 to Monday, March 21. But I don’t know how realistic it is to look at that March 1st date, as we haven’t seen a twenty-something day interval since June.
If it were me I’d be setting my sites for somewhere around March 9th, but preparing myself for something closer to the week of March 18th. Sure, we could see them before March 9th… but I’d be preparing myself for later than that.
These When post are all about trying to control expectations. Some people do better telling themselves an earlier date, and then when it doesn’t come the more realistic date isn’t so far away at that point. Others do better telling themselves a date that’s a week past the most likely so they don’t find themselves disappointed when the expected date doesn’t happen. Whatever you need to do to get through the wait, I hope my number crunching helps you find the best way to manage your own expectations.
